Vehicle sales have made a tremendous comeback over the past year. It was just twelve months ago that the sales pace reached a historic low of 8.7 million, the slowest monthly pace in nearly 50 years. Growing consumer confidence and additional government financial support since then have lifted new-vehicle demand.
“The robust sales pace is the story for the industry right now, as strong retail demand continues, even though a downtick from March is expected,” said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist, Cox Automotive. “There is little reason to expect buyer interest to wane anytime soon given recent economic growth rate expectations and improvements to consumer sentiment. But inventory is a huge problem in the vehicle market – a lingering result of the COVID-19 shock last year.”
Production shutdowns and supply chain disruptions have left dealers with too few vehicles. Limited inventory is a major challenge for the vehicle market, and it is likely to dampen sales activity in the coming months. There are nearly 1.1 million fewer vehicles in inventory at dealerships this April versus last April, and this tight supply situation will constrain sales. Vehicle buyers may have difficulty finding the product they want at the dealership they prefer. Color choices and trim packages will be limited as well, so much so that some buyers may decide to postpone purchasing if they can’t get exactly what they want.
April 2021 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast Highlights
- In April, new light-vehicle sales are forecast to rise 643,000 units, or nearly 90%, compared to April 2020. When compared to last month, sales are expected to fall nearly 240,000 units, or 15%.
- The SAAR in April 2021 is estimated to be 16.5 million, well above last year’s historic low of 8.7 million level but a decrease from March’s 17.7 million pace.
- April’s vehicle sales are expected to rise over 30,000 units, or 2.3%, versus April 2019, which suggests sales are normalizing.
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April 2021 New-Vehicle Sales Forecast |
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Sales Forecast1 |
Market Share |
|||||||||
|
Segment |
Apr-21 |
Apr-20 |
Mar-21 |
YOY% |
MOM% |
Apr-21 |
Mar-21 |
MOM |
||
|
Mid-Size SUV/Crossover |
230,000 |
123,686 |
272,852 |
86.0% |
-15.7% |
16.9% |
17.0% |
-0.1% |
||
|
Mid-Size Car |
80,000 |
50,993 |
100,941 |
56.9% |
-20.7% |
5.9% |
6.3% |
-0.4% |
||
|
Full-Size Pickup Truck |
190,000 |
151,633 |
227,328 |
25.3% |
-16.4% |
14.0% |
14.2% |
-0.2% |
||
|
Compact SUV/Crossover |
230,000 |
107,081 |
263,091 |
114.8% |
-12.6% |
16.9% |
16.4% |
0.5% |
||
|
Compact Car |
110,000 |
53,536 |
122,163 |
105.5% |
-10.0% |
8.1% |
7.6% |
0.5% |
||
|
Grand Total2 |
1,360,000 |
717,063 |
1,601,136 |
89.7% |
-15.1% |
|||||
|
1 Cox Automotive Industry Insights data |
|
2 Total includes segments not shown |
All percentages are based on raw volume, not daily selling rate.
About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive Inc. makes buying, selling, owning and using vehicles easier for everyone. The global company’s more than 27,000 team members and family of brands, including Autotrader®, Clutch Technologies, Dealer.com®, Dealertrack®, Kelley Blue Book®, Manheim®, NextGear Capital®, VinSolutions®, vAuto® and Xtime®, are passionate about helping millions of car shoppers, 40,000 auto dealer clients across five continents and many others throughout the automotive industry thrive for generations to come. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately-owned, Atlanta-based company with annual revenues of nearly $20 billion. www.coxautoinc.com
SOURCE Cox Automotive
